ENERGY PLANNING- ELECTRICITY & RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Economic Regulation Directorate co-ordinates the preparation of the Long Term Plan for the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) in the Power Sector integrating priority harmonized projects from the Feed in Tariffs (FiT) policy to incorporate renewable energy projects. The 20 year LCPDP is prepared through a multi-sectoral team incorporating the Ministry of Energy, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), Kenya Power, the Kenya Electricity Generation Company (KenGen), Kenya Electricity Transmission Company Limited (KETRACO), the Rural Electrification Authority (REA), Geothermal Development Company (GDC), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics(KNBS), The Vision 2030 secretariat and the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA).
Planning under the electricity and renewable energy sub sectors ensures we have both medium term and long terms plans. The LCPDP is revised every two years in tandem with economic growth and policy dynamics.
The process involves critical analysis as follows: demand forecasting, Load forecasting, generation planning, identification of target transmission network and undertaking relevant simulations to come up with the optimal future network and estimation of costs and analysis of tariffs derived from the planned generation and transmission network.
ENERGY PLANNING – PETROLEUM
The Economic Regulation Directorate co-ordinates the preparation of the Petroleum Development Plan (PDP) for the Petroleum sub-sector in Kenya. This involves preparation of medium and long term plans. The long term petroleum plan is for 20 years while the medium term plan cycle is 5 years. The PDP addresses medium to long term petroleum and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply issues and concerns. The plan provides forecasts for short and long term demand, identifies appropriate strategies of meeting the forecasted requirements at least cost and addresses both infrastructure and capacity constraints and related concerns that could hamper the smooth delivery of the services across the petroleum supply chain. The first PDP 2017-2037 has been completed and has a special chapter for LPG given its central role to transition Kenyans households from dirty inferior fuels to clean modern fuels.
Preparation of the PDP involves the following activities;
- Assessment of current macroeconomic environment and their impact on petroleum sub sector
- Demand foresting
- Scenario analysis using available data from all 47 counties
- Infrastructure plans to meet the demand
- Estimates of Investment cost to meet infrastructure requirements
- Special focus on LPG as a modern fuel to households
- Monitoring and evaluation plans